The AI Boom Carries Financial Risks: $3.5 Trillion at Risk

The current pace of artificial intelligence development and the massive investments being made in infrastructure could set the stage for a significant financial crisis. According to data from the research firm Gartner, if companies maintain their current spending strategies, approximately $3.5 trillion in infrastructure assets could be at risk of devaluation by the end of 2030.

Investments That May Not Pay Off

Projections indicate that approximately $1 trillion will be spent on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone, with an additional $6 trillion expected between 2027 and 2030. However, Gartner analysts believe that the actual revenue businesses and consumers generate from AI-based services will not be sufficient to cover these costs. The report suggests that by 2030, owners of AI data centres will need $8.5 trillion in revenue to recover their investments and achieve projected profits, whereas the market is only expected to generate $3.6 trillion.

The 'Neocloud' Crisis

So-called "neoclouds"—companies specializing in renting out the computing power necessary for AI—will be in a particularly difficult position. Gartner predicts that by 2030, more than 80% of these companies will cease independent operations. The issue lies in the fact that many are attempting to become "full-stack" platforms, a space for which there is insufficient room in the market. Furthermore, the pace of technological development is so rapid that the hardware in which companies have invested billions may become obsolete before the investment is fully recouped.

What This Means for the Market

While technology giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—known as hyperscalers—will be able to maintain their infrastructure for years due to their diversified revenue streams, smaller and specialized players face critical challenges. We are already seeing the first signs of this, such as declining stock and bond prices for specialized providers. Gartner’s conclusion is clear: the current "race" in the AI sector will not be successful for everyone. Some companies will leave the market, while others will be forced to radically change their business models to avoid massive asset devaluation. For the technology sector in Georgia, this means that when choosing global infrastructure solutions, companies should exercise greater caution and prioritize stable, financially sound platforms to avoid the risks associated with potential service disruptions.